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2021 Masters odds, picks: Collin Morikawa, Patrick Cantlay among golfers offering great value


With five weeks until the first round of the 2021 Masters, there is still value to be found as it relates to the best players in the world. The top of the field will only play a handful of times over the course of the next month, but odds will change (perhaps dramatically) depending what happens at The Players Championship and the WGC event leading into the year’s first major at Augusta National Golf Club.

When we look at the numbers for the Masters, we’re trying to assess right now which golfers will be shorter (or longer) on the week of the Masters. That’s difficult to do, but it will depend on both of the big events leading into the first major of 2021 as well as how much hype is surrounding some of the best players in the world.

With that framework, here are a few guys who are undervalued as well as a few who are overvalued with just over a month separating us from our first spring Masters in two years.

2021 Masters value picks

Collin Morikawa (25-1): He’s going to play well at TPC Sawgrass next week, and he’s coming off a monster WGC win at The Concession. He’s also the No. 4 player in the world already. Not to mention the fact that he might be the best in the world at the skill it’s most important to be the best in the world at when playing Augusta: iron play. So it’s confusing to me why he has the 10th-shortest odds in the field.

Patrick Cantlay (22-1): A lot of the same principles apply here. Cantlay led late in 2019 when Tiger Woods won (the last time this tournament was played in April). He should have a nice showing at The Players Championship, and he has not finished outside the top 20 anywhere since the last Masters. His 22-1 number is purely a function of the fact that he’s not as big of a name as some of the players ahead of him. 

Viktor Hovland (33-1): Consider the fact that he’s been the best ball-striker in the world in 2021 (just ahead of Dustin Johnson) and the fact that he thrived here as an amateur in his only appearance, and he should be more in the 25-1 or even 20-1 range. Tons of value to be had for a top-15 player in the world.

Sungjae Im (40-1): Always plays well in Florida where the PGA Tour is currently running, and he was runner-up last year (which I’d forgotten!). He’ll be shorter than 40-1 (probably more in the 33-1 neighborhood) come tournament week.

Scottie Scheffler (50-1): Elite ball-striker who should have better odds than Harris English, Jason Day and Matthew Wolff right now. I could see him cruising around at the WGC-Dell Match Play and wriggling his way to 40-1.

Overvalued golfers

Jordan Spieth (16-1): Hear me out. I am all in on his resurgence. However, he never plays well at TPC Sawgrass, and we probably need to see the consistent success for a longer period of time. I think you’ll probably be able to get him at 20-1 or longer the week of the Masters if you just absolutely have to pick him for this one.

Justin Thomas (12-1): He has not been great so far in 2021, and I bet his number drops — if only slightly — before the first round in five weeks. His trajectory at the Masters is excellent, and I’m a believer in him on that golf course, but I think you can come off him a little bit and find better value come the second week in April.

Hideki Matsuyama (33-1): No top 10s at any majors since 2017. I just don’t see it. At 40-1 or 50-1? Maybe. But he and Hovland should not be sitting on the same number for this particular tournament.

Who will win the Masters, and which long shots will stun the golfing world? Visit SportsLine to see the projected leaderboard from the model that’s nailed six golf majors and is up over $10,700 since the of the 2020 season.





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